Nifty Technical Story
The Stock Market is Beautiful!
The market is a place where money is made when points of view differ. The market speaks to us in the universal language of numbers. These numbers represent price action (plotted on the y - axis) which when measured over time (plotted on the x - axis) forms a 2-dimensional chart.
Repeated plotting of thousands of securities across multiple indices across geographies over a considerable period of time has shown familiar patterns which confirms that people tend to react the same way in a situation and that the human behavioural trend, which in the Stock Market is represented through price action, can be predicted. This fact attracts people who believe they are behavioural psychologists, philosophers, statisticians, mathematicians, artists, speculators or a bit of all to analyse these behavioural trends and to form a point of view.
Technical analysts tend to use certain tools such indicators, oscillators and/or chart overlays to gauge the market better. These indicators could range from simple moving averages to complex calculations to determine the strength of a trend. While many such indicators exist - let me give you an example of one such indicator "The Coppock Curve".
The Coppock Curve is a commonly used Technical Indicator, developed by Edwin Coppock, which is used to determine a buy signal on fundamentally up-trending securities. This indicator draws inputs by analysing behaviour after a fall over a 11 and a 14 month period WMA and ROC.
Question : Why only the 11 and 14 period and not say 15-19 period?
Answer : Coppock based his premise per inputs of an Episcopal priest who studied that the average period of mourning when grieving the loss of a loved one is usually between 11-14 periods (months).
Question : So how did he develop and use this input ?
Answer : It seemed that Mr. Coppock first identified an uptrending stock with good fundamentals which in the recent 11-14 periods has shown a major correction.
Note : Correction is a fancy word to say that someone in the market is losing serious money
Step 1 - Coppock considered the sentiment associated with loss of money akin to grieving over a loved one and then proceeded to analyse the security price pattern during this period of mourning
Step 2 - He analysed how the underlying security behaved after recovering from this loss (after the 14 month period)
Step 3 - He then proceeded towards analysing this behaviour for multiple securities to determine a trend or a pattern
Step 4 - He then mathematically represented this recovery behaviour
Step 5 - He then plotted his calculations on a graph which later, in a bid to go down in history, he named it as "The Coppock Curve".
Step 6 - Implementation!
Mr. Coppock then finally proceeded to buy securities whose behaviours were consistent with his analysis - made money - and now other traders use this input.
Question : So how do we benefit from Mr. Coppock`s research while analysing our favourite Index (:P) - The Indian National Stock Exchange (NSE/Nifty)
Answer : To understand this let us consider Nifty's historical movement.
Nifty experienced a serious fall in Jan 2008 - where it fell from an awesome value of 6300 points and reduced to a third of its value (1x/3) hitting rock bottom at 2252 in Nov 2008 (11 months - Remember the conversation between Mr. Coppock and the priest on the subject of mourning).
Question : What happened after that?
Answer : After this crushing fall Nifty stabilized and showed first signs of bullish behaviour in March/April 2009 (14 months after the devastating fall began in Jan 2008 - Again remember Mr. Coppock :P) and made a full recovery hitting 6300, a growth of 3x in valuation in 11 months i.e. Jan-Feb 2010 (Mr. Coppock is dominating now!! )
Question : OK - So what happened after that?
Answer : Remember the saying Resistance? - Its another concept (an important one) - but it basically means that sellers get super pumped around this value and usually it is equal to the previous high (there are precise formulas and theory around this - but more on that may be sometime later).
Now, as expected, there was serious resistance in Jan 2008 at 6300 and since this resistance was not broken therefore at this point it continues to remain intact. After hitting a high of 6300 Nifty then repeated its tendency to fall back again from this value but this time it could not reach 2250 - instead stopped at 4530! falling to 2x/3 and in the process formed a significant higher low (Remember pivot theory they taught you in school? if not then go to baby pips website to learn)
Trivia : Can you guess how many months after testing the 6300 top did Nifty reach this new bottom value?
Answer : If you guessed 11 months i.e. Jan 2011 then you nailed it!! (Clearly Mr. Coppocks is now on a God Like streak now!! :P)
OK now this low of 4350 also coincided with 50% Fibonacci Retracement Value.
Note : The above example shows that Nifty in the past has previously shown a tendency to correct till 50% Fib retracement value.
Question : What is this Fibonacci Retracement?
Answer : Fibonacci was a mad scientist and a super genius. More on him and how to calculate his values may be sometime later, but just remember this 50% Retracement Value bit for now.
Question : So far Mr. Coppock Values have held good - but what happened after the market reached a new low on Jan 2011?
Answer : Market went ahead and retested the 6300 levels and fell again - but this time only to 5119! in Aug 2013 in the process forming a new higher low. These lows of 2250 - 4530 - 5119 when factored in with time form a trend line (a different concept which was discovered even before Mr. Coppock was potentially born) and this formation is surely sending shivers in the bear camp who will now be forced to atleast give potential market recovery atleast some consideration.
Now despite consistently forming higher lows Nifty so far has not yet been able to cross the 6300 barrier strongly.
Trivia : Any guesses at which values all the bears in the market will come to short Nifty again?
Answer :6300!! If you guessed this then you have just understood what resistance means!
Now if you were a follower of the market back then you will be expecting a serious blood bath fight between the bulls and the bears at the 6300 value and hence the obvious questions during this time were will bears triumph again? or will bulls slap them the Rajni/Chuck style? No one really knows whats going to happen now - but the one thing is sure who ever wins is going to dominate!!
The answer was realized by Jan/Feb 2013 - when talks of a business favourable election result began to surface - this was all the incentive the bulls needed who then owned the bears and thus began one of the most powerful bull rallies India has seen! Our favourite index rallied 50% in the next year and rest as they say is history and 14 months after the bloody fight between the bulls and the bears was over - after a well fought battle for over half a decade - the bulls were victorious after a street brawl which lasted for almost 4 months during the period and Nifty finally formed a Higher Top at 9119! in March 2015 an all time high.
Remember Fib 50% retracement level we spoke about earlier - this value is now coinciding with approx 7000 - 7100 Nifty levels.
Sum and Substance of all this :
The Fib 50% retracement was the previous major support back in Jan 2011 - and this time corresponds to 7000 - (low of 5119 to a high of 9119). Now if we are to believe Mr. Coppock and the 11-14 period principle then this from March 2015 high terminates in Feb 2016 - April/May 2016.
So this understanding now creates certain targets for Nifty :
1. Nifty likely to test lows of 7000 by Jan-Feb 2016 therfore be bearish atleast till then. Gradually shift bias towards the 14 month period
2. The bull run is intact at these values (Elliot Wave confirmation - another crazy concept - sometime later maybe) and based on that premise we must go long on Nifty at those values
3. Expect a positive breakout by April 2016 - Invest heavily in Mutual Funds at this time
4. Remember 6300? the previous major resistance - this is now the most critical support value for Nifty, therefore if you enter at 7000 levels then keep a SL of 6100-6300 approximate 10-12% risk and invest accordingly.
Exit the market if Nifty falls below this value. Shift all - and I mean all funds in secured instruments not in equity.
5. Expect the next major fight in March/April 2017 at the 9119 value ( Nifty will meet the inverted head and shoulders target at this point - separate concept)
6. If Nifty breaks the 9119 value by March 2017 expect Indian traders going long on the market getting seriously richer for the next few years
7. Remember anything is possible therefore trade/invest with technique because only the Market knows the future and the Market is always correct. Nothing ever is a carving on stone.
Please note :
This article only summarizes my general view on the market move. To make money I will continue to analyse daily trends which will be bullish and bearish from time to time depending on my time frame for trading
The market is all about timing and to time my entries and exit better I use many many more parameters for my analysis. This blog is aimed at timing your mutual fund entry better, and in case the readers are already long on Mutual Fund then maximum capital entry is recommended at the 7000 Nifty Level.
The blog aims to give the readers a general perspective of the potential market direction, for more precise action continue following my blogs to factor in daily and weekly trade positions. Therefore please dont go and short Nifty on Monday - lol - as the short term trend is still up - I have long positions carried forward for Monday.
Conclusion :
I will conclude now hoping that the readers are better informed about the market. Remember security is everything and do not underestimate the importance of Retirement funds or long term maturity plans like PPF or the Gold Bonds (if you are Indian) in creating significant wealth over a long term. Also this is an analysis of the Nifty 50 alone - the details of midcap and other sectoral indices BNF, CNX Auto,Pharma,IT etc will be significantly different therefore please keep that in mind.
Anyways looking forward to your continued love and support.
With warmest regards on this festive season.
Still Bullish
We have been in long position since 10.12.15. I would encourage the readers to visit my previous post titled "Bears Beware" posted during end of Dec 2nd Week. In that post I listed my position for this wave trade as 6 Lots 7900 CE bought at an average price of 23.6 with a SL of 14.15 and targets at Nifty close at 7670 - 7760 - 7835 - 7921 and today these options are officially In The Money :). Capital invested was approx 150 points with approx 60 points risk in position.
During the subsequent trading session we have sold 5/6 lots at 30,45,55,35,35 recovering 200 points from the position i.e. 33% profit booked so far. We still carry 1 lot. My position confirms my view that the market is still bullish on the short term.
Today Nifty has closed strongly above its Monthly Pivot - 7921.
RSI has just given a break out on the daily and the day recorded almost highest volumes in a relatively low volume trading week.
Stochastics on weekly has given a bullish cross.
With volume play it is safe to assume that there is definitely some buying momentum behind Nifty given that on days of slightly higher volume the Market is still trending up.
The next real battle between bulls and bears likely on or near the 7979 values which was the Low Top Nifty formed earlier and break of this value confirms Nifty on short term bullish trend by Pivot theory. Looks like Nifty could form a top around these values for the week.
So the question for the week trading is :
Q. Will Nifty form a new high top by breach of the previous high of 7979?
Q. Nifty traded for almost a week in a 100-150 point range of 7850 - 7730. Will a break out from this range start a mid term bullish trend also?
Q. Which pattern is Nifty going to play? Double top with 8350 and low of 7550? or a break out of an inverted head and shoulders?
And many more questions. Different traders different views.
So while it is clear there are several near and midterm resistances well in sight and that there will always be bulls with doubts about the strength of the trend given that Nifty has moved up almost 350 points since Dec 2nd week (after the post "Bears Beware") - Still one can maintain that it is just simpler and safer to be with the bulls at the moment. Nifty so far has not shown any signs of reversal - So stay calm and enjoy the wave.
Carry Forward :
1 Lot 7900 CE @ 23.6. SL 7797.18 (or 14.15) (SAR Value for current trade)
Trade Plan :
There are days to work - days to play and days to rest. This week we Rest.
Trade light - dont sell dont add as expiry of options near and premiums wont fetch value.
Volumes have been super low.
Nothing favouring trading at the moment. Only play on Nifty downside but reversal sign yet.
Only to look to exit out of the current long position gracefully (:P) in a day or so.
Hope the input here will help the readers plan there Nifty trades for tomorrow.
First Sign of Reversal
Premise : Candle stick
The day end candlestick has formed a near doji - and doji`s are deadly at picking market tops after a confirmation.
What could be the confirmations tomorrow?
A red candle stick. Or more specifically the following red candlesticks :
1. Gap up shooting star 2. Gap up gravestone doji 3. Gravestone doji or a Rickshaw Man 4. Gap up doji or
5. Another doji 6. Hanging man 7. Shooting star
Any one of the candle sticks listed above seems to happen and I will strongly consider adding short positions as early as tomorrow by 2 pm.
My thoughts...
Evening Star Configuration: Look for a tall white candle in an upward price trend. Following that, a small bodied candle of any color should gap above the bodies of the two adjacent candles (ignore the shadows). The last day is a tall black candle that opens below the prior candle, and closes at least midway down the body of the first day (following Bulkowski...)
If Nifty opens below 7929 and closes red...this is valid! Opening above 7929; no, no to this!
Tomorrow we get a confirmation! Now DOW is 200+
"Look for a tall white candle" - The CS on 28.12.15 qualifies.
If a gap up doji happened despite yesterdays close it could still lay the foundations of a evening star pattern. To support my argument I would recommend you having a look at the Nifty CS on the following dates :
10.11.15 - Big red CS
11.11.15 - Dhanteras and super low volumes
12.11.15 - Holiday
13.11.15 - Doji
14.11.15 - Big green CS
11.11.15 - Dhanteras and super low volumes
12.11.15 - Holiday
13.11.15 - Doji
14.11.15 - Big green CS
Now this is not a perfect morning start - since by definition the market did not gap down on the 13.11.15 - but still very similar. To consider this as a potential reversal sign is subjective and I agree this is not strict theory, but it still works! Dojis gain alot more significance in a market where its occurence is not very high.
"an upward price trend" - A very very critical point. The trend from 11.12.15 to date qualifies.
"ignore the shadows" - This will be specifically ONLY in case of looking for a evening/morning star pattern. Shadows in case of rickshaw man or a long legged doji are super critical. They indicate that the market is confused and has temporarily lost its sense of direction.
"The last day is a tall black candle that opens below the prior candle, and closes at least midway down the body of the first day" - Yes, this is correct. But this is ONLY anticipating/defining a evening star pattern.
I would recommend you have a look at what did Nifty do the last time it was approaching 7980 the last week of November. The reversal was caught by the doji - doji - without the star patterns.
I would recommend you have a look at what did Nifty do the last time it was approaching 7980 the last week of November. The reversal was caught by the doji - doji - without the star patterns.
Security Call or Put is a function of your understanding of the direction - The lot sizing or position is a function of your confidence. A star pattern simply raises my confidence to such an extent that I will go in aggressively - i.e. if I normally trade with 1 lot I might increase lot size to almost 90% of my capital.
Courtesy: SAHIL
"Quotes" that inspire to take risk.
Life is a risk.
-Diane Von Furstenberg
---------------------------------------
If you don't risk anything you risk even more.
-Erica Jong
---------------------------------------
First weigh the considerations, then take the risks.
-Helmuth von Moltke (1800 - 1891)
---------------------------------------
Great deeds are usually wrought at great risks.
-Herodotus (484 BC - 430 BC), The Histories of Herodotus
---------------------------------------
If you're never scared or embarrassed or hurt, it means you never take any chances.
-Julia Sorel
---------------------------------------
It seems to me that people have vast potential. Most people can do extraordinary things if they have the confidence or take the risks. Yet most people don't. They sit in front of the telly and treat life as if it goes on forever.
-Philip Adams
---------------------------------------
Our lives improve only when we take chances - and the first and most difficult risk we can take is to be honest with ourselves.
-Walter Anderson
---------------------------------------
What you risk reveals what you value.
-Jeanette Winterson
---------------------------------------
And the day came when the risk to remain tight in a bud was more painful than the risk it took to blossom.
-Anais Nin (1903 - 1977)
---------------------------------------
Unless you try to do something beyond what you have already mastered, you will never grow.
Ronald. E. Osborn
---------------------------------------
Vision is not enough, it must be combined with venture. It is not enough to stare up the steps, we must step up the stairs.
Vaclav Havel
---------------------------------------
We cannot swing up on a rope that is attached only to our own belt.
William Ernest Hocking
---------------------------------------
We won't even attempt to achieve what we do not believe at a deep level we can have or deserve.
Ruth Ross
---------------------------------------
What you have to do and the way you have to do it is incredibly simple. Whether you are willing to do it is another matter.
Peter F. Drucker
---------------------------------------
When written in Chinese the word crisis is composed to two characters. One represents danger, and the other represents opportunity.
John F. Kennedy
---------------------------------------
The greatest glory in living lies not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.
Nelson Mandela
---------------------------------------
The man who can drive himself further once the effort gets painful is the man who will win.
Roger Bannister
---------------------------------------
The man who does things makes many mistakes, but he never makes the biggest mistake of all - doing nothing.
Benjamin Franklin
---------------------------------------
The man who makes no mistakes does not usually make anything.
Bishop W. C. Magee
---------------------------------------
The more you seek security, the less of it you have. But the more you seek opportunity, the more likely it is that you will achieve the security that you desire.
Brian Tracy
---------------------------------------
The person who goes farthest is generally the one who is willing to do and dare. The sure-thing boat never gets far from shore.
Dale Carnegie
---------------------------------------
The results you achieve will be in direct proportion to the effort you apply.
Denis Waitley
---------------------------------------
The reward of a thing well done is to have done it.
Ralph Waldo Emerson
---------------------------------------
Never measure the height of a mountain until you have reached the top. Then you will see how low it was.
Dag Hammarskjold
---------------------------------------
Never mistake activity for achievement.
John Wooden
---------------------------------------
Nothing splendid has ever been achieved except by those who dared believe that something inside them was superior to circumstance.
Bruce Barton
---------------------------------------
Often the difference between a successful person and a failure is not one has better abilities or ideas, but the courage that one has to bet on one's ideas, to take a calculated risk - and to act.
Maxwell Maltz
---------------------------------------
One that would have the fruit must climb the tree.
Thomas Fuller
Courtesy: Jagmohan
-Diane Von Furstenberg
---------------------------------------
If you don't risk anything you risk even more.
-Erica Jong
---------------------------------------
First weigh the considerations, then take the risks.
-Helmuth von Moltke (1800 - 1891)
---------------------------------------
Great deeds are usually wrought at great risks.
-Herodotus (484 BC - 430 BC), The Histories of Herodotus
---------------------------------------
If you're never scared or embarrassed or hurt, it means you never take any chances.
-Julia Sorel
---------------------------------------
It seems to me that people have vast potential. Most people can do extraordinary things if they have the confidence or take the risks. Yet most people don't. They sit in front of the telly and treat life as if it goes on forever.
-Philip Adams
---------------------------------------
Our lives improve only when we take chances - and the first and most difficult risk we can take is to be honest with ourselves.
-Walter Anderson
---------------------------------------
What you risk reveals what you value.
-Jeanette Winterson
---------------------------------------
And the day came when the risk to remain tight in a bud was more painful than the risk it took to blossom.
-Anais Nin (1903 - 1977)
---------------------------------------
Unless you try to do something beyond what you have already mastered, you will never grow.
Ronald. E. Osborn
---------------------------------------
Vision is not enough, it must be combined with venture. It is not enough to stare up the steps, we must step up the stairs.
Vaclav Havel
---------------------------------------
We cannot swing up on a rope that is attached only to our own belt.
William Ernest Hocking
---------------------------------------
We won't even attempt to achieve what we do not believe at a deep level we can have or deserve.
Ruth Ross
---------------------------------------
What you have to do and the way you have to do it is incredibly simple. Whether you are willing to do it is another matter.
Peter F. Drucker
---------------------------------------
When written in Chinese the word crisis is composed to two characters. One represents danger, and the other represents opportunity.
John F. Kennedy
---------------------------------------
The greatest glory in living lies not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.
Nelson Mandela
---------------------------------------
The man who can drive himself further once the effort gets painful is the man who will win.
Roger Bannister
---------------------------------------
The man who does things makes many mistakes, but he never makes the biggest mistake of all - doing nothing.
Benjamin Franklin
---------------------------------------
The man who makes no mistakes does not usually make anything.
Bishop W. C. Magee
---------------------------------------
The more you seek security, the less of it you have. But the more you seek opportunity, the more likely it is that you will achieve the security that you desire.
Brian Tracy
---------------------------------------
The person who goes farthest is generally the one who is willing to do and dare. The sure-thing boat never gets far from shore.
Dale Carnegie
---------------------------------------
The results you achieve will be in direct proportion to the effort you apply.
Denis Waitley
---------------------------------------
The reward of a thing well done is to have done it.
Ralph Waldo Emerson
---------------------------------------
Never measure the height of a mountain until you have reached the top. Then you will see how low it was.
Dag Hammarskjold
---------------------------------------
Never mistake activity for achievement.
John Wooden
---------------------------------------
Nothing splendid has ever been achieved except by those who dared believe that something inside them was superior to circumstance.
Bruce Barton
---------------------------------------
Often the difference between a successful person and a failure is not one has better abilities or ideas, but the courage that one has to bet on one's ideas, to take a calculated risk - and to act.
Maxwell Maltz
---------------------------------------
One that would have the fruit must climb the tree.
Thomas Fuller
Courtesy: Jagmohan
What a Difference?
Some say : "Oh God! It is falling!
Others say : "Thank God! It is now available for less!"
=============================================
Some say : "It is very risky opportunity"
Others say : "It is risky, that is why it is an opportunity"
=============================================
Some say : "I feel terrible at 7000 Sensex."
Others say : "How would I feel when it get backs to 21000 in a few months!!!"
=============================================
Some say : "Everybody is selling"
Others say : "If everybody is selling, then who is buying from them & why!!!"
=============================================
Some say : "Hurrey! I've got the profit!"
Others say : "Hurrey! My method has profited!"
=============================================
Some say : "God! Help me!"
Others say : "God! Help me help myself!"
=============================================
Some say : "Will I be successful in trading?"
Others say : "When and how will I be successful?"
=============================================
Some say : "What is the market going to do now?"
Others say : "What will I do if the market does this and what will i do if the market does that?
"
=============================================
The difference is in the language!
What a difference!!!
Courtesy: Jagmohan
Others say : "Thank God! It is now available for less!"
=============================================
Some say : "It is very risky opportunity"
Others say : "It is risky, that is why it is an opportunity"
=============================================
Some say : "I feel terrible at 7000 Sensex."
Others say : "How would I feel when it get backs to 21000 in a few months!!!"
=============================================
Some say : "Everybody is selling"
Others say : "If everybody is selling, then who is buying from them & why!!!"
=============================================
Some say : "Hurrey! I've got the profit!"
Others say : "Hurrey! My method has profited!"
=============================================
Some say : "God! Help me!"
Others say : "God! Help me help myself!"
=============================================
Some say : "Will I be successful in trading?"
Others say : "When and how will I be successful?"
=============================================
Some say : "What is the market going to do now?"
Others say : "What will I do if the market does this and what will i do if the market does that?
"
=============================================
The difference is in the language!
What a difference!!!
Courtesy: Jagmohan
Exhausted RSI
Watch the rsi of falling stock/nifty
If it rebounds from above 30, ignore!
If it rebounds from below 30, sit up and watch carefully!
If the price continues to fall, rsi continues to repeatedly (2-4 times) bang its head in the very low rsi wall (say 30 to 5) and never rising more than 55-60 in-between,
get ready, your prey is in front of you!!
And when the stock or nifty has fallen "a lot", rsi has exhausted falling down and is starting to move up while price is still down, pounce!!!
You have just entered a trade in which the odds are highly favourable to you and the stock is extremely oversold in the given time frame.
Then hold till the base line becomes horizontal.
For weak hearts, hold till rsi crossess 80.
For Day Trading take rsi 14/2min
For Swing (1-3 months) trading take rsi 14/1d
U can verify the trade by ema 34/8 in swing trading and ema 10/50 in day trading (just to amuse urself, otherwise verification is not required).
Similarly, reverse is true for the up moves.
Cautions :
1) Don't carry forward day trading.
2) If u don't get the exact signal as above, don't trade.
For BTST
BTST (Buy Today Sell Tomorrow)
STBT (Sell Today Buy Tomorrow)
BTST any good stock near closing if
1) it has exahusted near lower rsi wall (30-0) in the last few hours, or
2) it has just given a charge towards upper rsi wall (70-100) (preferably after exhausting near lower rsi wall)
3) it has remained by and large within 35-65 range for the entire day after remaining near high rsi wall the previous day (meaning it is in strong uptrend and is refusing to go down before another charge up)
----------------------------------
STBT any good stock near closing if
1) it has exahusted near upper rsi wall in the last few hours, or
2) it has just given a charge towards lower rsi wall (preferably after exhausting near upper rsi wall)
3) it has remained by and large within 35-65 range for the entire day after remaining near lower rsi wall the previous day (meaning it is in strong downtrend and is refusing to go up before another charge down)
----------------------------------
RSI is said to have exhausted if it has banged its head against the upper or lower wall a few times while the price was clearly trending.
----------------------------------
The same applies to nifty futures as well.
Also, obviously, only stock futures should be taken for btst or stbt for cost considerations.
The stock or nifty is likely to give you handsome profit in the morning. Due to global pressures, if the stock chosen as per above rules behaves adversely, it is most likely to rebound.
*******************************************
If short term trend is up,
BUY when rsi 14/30min
on 1 month chart
goes below 30.
wait for 2-4 days and see the magic.
book profit when rsi has exhausted in the overbought zone.
-------------------------------------
If short term trend is down,
BUY when rsi 14/30min
on 1 month chart
goes below 20 and exhausts.
wait for 2-4 days and see the magic.
book profit when rsi has exhausted in the overbought zone.
(if, during down trend u buy at rsi below 20 but without waiting for its exhaustion
book profit when rsi touches 60
because it is expected that price will fall after this brief relief rally, for rsi to exhaust.)
-------------------------------------
Never short!
-------------------------------------
Bite the size you can chew!
-------------------------------------
By "exhaust", I mean the rsi bangs its head quite a few times in the 30-0 or 70-100 rsi wall while the price is falling falling and falling or rising rising rising.
-------------------------------------
A) go to website (http://www.google.com/finance?q=NSE:.NSEI)
for stock pl search stock in the column before "Get Quotes"
B) click on '1m' inside graph window
C) click on "technicals" below graph window.
D) Click on "add technical"
E) Select RSI (14/30min will appear automatically), Select period as 14
F) You are ready!
If it rebounds from above 30, ignore!
If it rebounds from below 30, sit up and watch carefully!
If the price continues to fall, rsi continues to repeatedly (2-4 times) bang its head in the very low rsi wall (say 30 to 5) and never rising more than 55-60 in-between,
get ready, your prey is in front of you!!
And when the stock or nifty has fallen "a lot", rsi has exhausted falling down and is starting to move up while price is still down, pounce!!!
You have just entered a trade in which the odds are highly favourable to you and the stock is extremely oversold in the given time frame.
Then hold till the base line becomes horizontal.
For weak hearts, hold till rsi crossess 80.
For Day Trading take rsi 14/2min
For Swing (1-3 months) trading take rsi 14/1d
U can verify the trade by ema 34/8 in swing trading and ema 10/50 in day trading (just to amuse urself, otherwise verification is not required).
Similarly, reverse is true for the up moves.
Cautions :
1) Don't carry forward day trading.
2) If u don't get the exact signal as above, don't trade.
For BTST
BTST (Buy Today Sell Tomorrow)
STBT (Sell Today Buy Tomorrow)
BTST any good stock near closing if
1) it has exahusted near lower rsi wall (30-0) in the last few hours, or
2) it has just given a charge towards upper rsi wall (70-100) (preferably after exhausting near lower rsi wall)
3) it has remained by and large within 35-65 range for the entire day after remaining near high rsi wall the previous day (meaning it is in strong uptrend and is refusing to go down before another charge up)
----------------------------------
STBT any good stock near closing if
1) it has exahusted near upper rsi wall in the last few hours, or
2) it has just given a charge towards lower rsi wall (preferably after exhausting near upper rsi wall)
3) it has remained by and large within 35-65 range for the entire day after remaining near lower rsi wall the previous day (meaning it is in strong downtrend and is refusing to go up before another charge down)
----------------------------------
RSI is said to have exhausted if it has banged its head against the upper or lower wall a few times while the price was clearly trending.
----------------------------------
The same applies to nifty futures as well.
Also, obviously, only stock futures should be taken for btst or stbt for cost considerations.
The stock or nifty is likely to give you handsome profit in the morning. Due to global pressures, if the stock chosen as per above rules behaves adversely, it is most likely to rebound.
*******************************************
If short term trend is up,
BUY when rsi 14/30min
on 1 month chart
goes below 30.
wait for 2-4 days and see the magic.
book profit when rsi has exhausted in the overbought zone.
-------------------------------------
If short term trend is down,
BUY when rsi 14/30min
on 1 month chart
goes below 20 and exhausts.
wait for 2-4 days and see the magic.
book profit when rsi has exhausted in the overbought zone.
(if, during down trend u buy at rsi below 20 but without waiting for its exhaustion
book profit when rsi touches 60
because it is expected that price will fall after this brief relief rally, for rsi to exhaust.)
-------------------------------------
Never short!
-------------------------------------
Bite the size you can chew!
-------------------------------------
By "exhaust", I mean the rsi bangs its head quite a few times in the 30-0 or 70-100 rsi wall while the price is falling falling and falling or rising rising rising.
-------------------------------------
A) go to website (http://www.google.com/finance?q=NSE:.NSEI)
for stock pl search stock in the column before "Get Quotes"
B) click on '1m' inside graph window
C) click on "technicals" below graph window.
D) Click on "add technical"
E) Select RSI (14/30min will appear automatically), Select period as 14
F) You are ready!
*******************************
RSI Protocol
Among the various types of RSI charts, the seniority list is as below:-
14/1week on 2 year chart (General)
14/1day on 3-month chart (Brigadier)
14/30min on 1-month chart (Colonel)
14/2 min on intraday or 5-day chart (Captain)
To interpret the Captain's move, keep an eye on what the Colonel is doing.
To interpret the Colonel's move, keep an eye on what the Brigadier is doing.
To interpret the Brigadier's move, keep an eye on what the General is doing.
If the junior's actions are ante to his superior expect the junior to be repremanded and forced to change his direction.
Don't take big positions on ante junior positions!
If the General is not tired on a trend-mission it is safe to assume that the Brigadier has not exhausted!
If the Brigadier is not tired on a trend-mission it is safe to assume that the Colonel has not exhausted!
If the Colonel is not tired on a trend-mission it is safe to assume that the Captain has not exhausted!
Therefore,
If junior's state-of-affairs is not ratified by any of his superiors, don't take any position.
If junior's state-of-affairs is ratified by his immediate superior only, take small to medium positions for short term.
If junior's state-of-affairs is ratified by all of his superior ranks, take larger positions for extended peiods of time.
This way, you will never make a wrong assessment of the ground situation.
*********************************************
Recently, it has been found that RSI can humble even the fox!!
RSI has double meaning to whatever it does
When it hits its head in the oversold or overbought wall
-it may mean it is indeed "over" sold or bought
-it may mean "ye to sirf shuruaat hai, aage aage dekhiye hota hai kya"!
When it retreats back after hitting the oversold or overbought wall
-it may mean price is going to correct
-it may mean the rsi is making room for itself to hit again harder!
When the rsi is not moving at all
-it may mean the price has paused
-it may mean that the price trend is losing the steam!
When the rsi is horizontal and price is not
-it may indicate rise in price if rsi is in the lower band
-it may indicate consolidation or fall in price if rsi is in the upper band
When the rsi is parallel to the price line
-it may indicate trend reversal if both are horizontal
-it may indicate trend strengthen if both are rising or both are falling
beware of the fox in the trading jungle
the RSI!
It knows a lot but is foxy in revealing!!!
******************************************
Ascent
------
Stage I : RSI rises, Price rises
Stage II : RSI flat, Price rises
Stage III : RSI falls, Price rises
Descent
-------
Stage IV : RSI falls, Price falls
Stage VI : RSI flat, Price falls
Stage VII : RSI rises, Price falls
Stage VIII : RSI rises, Price rises
(Stage VIII is same as stage I.)
Caution:-
-------
1. Stage I starts from the deep valleys of oversold RSI.
2. Traders should keep the stages of the rocket in mind to plan their "journey"
3. The rocket can skip stage II &/or III during ascent if rally is weak
4. The rocket can skip stage VI &/or VII during descent if rally is weak
5. During bull runs, stage VI & VII are likely to be absent.
6. During bear runs, stage II & III are likely to be absent.
7. A stage has not ended till the next has started.
RSI Protocol
Among the various types of RSI charts, the seniority list is as below:-
14/1week on 2 year chart (General)
14/1day on 3-month chart (Brigadier)
14/30min on 1-month chart (Colonel)
14/2 min on intraday or 5-day chart (Captain)
To interpret the Captain's move, keep an eye on what the Colonel is doing.
To interpret the Colonel's move, keep an eye on what the Brigadier is doing.
To interpret the Brigadier's move, keep an eye on what the General is doing.
If the junior's actions are ante to his superior expect the junior to be repremanded and forced to change his direction.
Don't take big positions on ante junior positions!
If the General is not tired on a trend-mission it is safe to assume that the Brigadier has not exhausted!
If the Brigadier is not tired on a trend-mission it is safe to assume that the Colonel has not exhausted!
If the Colonel is not tired on a trend-mission it is safe to assume that the Captain has not exhausted!
Therefore,
If junior's state-of-affairs is not ratified by any of his superiors, don't take any position.
If junior's state-of-affairs is ratified by his immediate superior only, take small to medium positions for short term.
If junior's state-of-affairs is ratified by all of his superior ranks, take larger positions for extended peiods of time.
This way, you will never make a wrong assessment of the ground situation.
*********************************************
Recently, it has been found that RSI can humble even the fox!!
RSI has double meaning to whatever it does
When it hits its head in the oversold or overbought wall
-it may mean it is indeed "over" sold or bought
-it may mean "ye to sirf shuruaat hai, aage aage dekhiye hota hai kya"!
When it retreats back after hitting the oversold or overbought wall
-it may mean price is going to correct
-it may mean the rsi is making room for itself to hit again harder!
When the rsi is not moving at all
-it may mean the price has paused
-it may mean that the price trend is losing the steam!
When the rsi is horizontal and price is not
-it may indicate rise in price if rsi is in the lower band
-it may indicate consolidation or fall in price if rsi is in the upper band
When the rsi is parallel to the price line
-it may indicate trend reversal if both are horizontal
-it may indicate trend strengthen if both are rising or both are falling
beware of the fox in the trading jungle
the RSI!
It knows a lot but is foxy in revealing!!!
******************************************
Ascent
------
Stage I : RSI rises, Price rises
Stage II : RSI flat, Price rises
Stage III : RSI falls, Price rises
Descent
-------
Stage IV : RSI falls, Price falls
Stage VI : RSI flat, Price falls
Stage VII : RSI rises, Price falls
Stage VIII : RSI rises, Price rises
(Stage VIII is same as stage I.)
Caution:-
-------
1. Stage I starts from the deep valleys of oversold RSI.
2. Traders should keep the stages of the rocket in mind to plan their "journey"
3. The rocket can skip stage II &/or III during ascent if rally is weak
4. The rocket can skip stage VI &/or VII during descent if rally is weak
5. During bull runs, stage VI & VII are likely to be absent.
6. During bear runs, stage II & III are likely to be absent.
7. A stage has not ended till the next has started.
Courtesy: Jagmohan
US Congress lifts 40-year oil export Ban
The United States lifted a 40-year ban on oil exports today, marking a historic shift for the booming US oil industry.
While many Democrats opposed it, some joined Republican lawmakers and major oil companies who lobbied hard for lifting the ban, arguing it would create US jobs and boost the security of Washington’s European allies.
“The facts are clear: lifting the ban is good for consumers, our economy, national security and energy security,” said Senator Heidi Heitkamp of oil-rich Nork Dakota.
“By opening up US crude oil to the rest of the world, we would not only provide our allies with a more stable energy trading partner, but we would also reduce the power of countries like Russia, Venezuela, and volatile regions of the Middle East that use their energy dominance to exert influence over our nation and our allies,” she said.
Environmentalists are concerned the move will encourage continued reliance on oil over clean energy, despite US pledges at the Paris climate summit to cut its carbon footprint.
“Dirty, dangerous fossil fuels need to be kept in the ground and liberalizing our export policy is exactly the wrong direction to take,” said Friends of the Earth.
The nongovernmental organization also contended that the ban’s repeal would “increase the frequency of exploding trains and oil spills across the country and in international waters.”
The ban was first imposed in 1975 as the United States was reeling from the 1973-1974 Arab oil embargo, which dealt a heavy shock to the US economy and sent global prices shooting up.
Arab members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had banned oil exports to the United States in retaliation for Washington’s support of Israel during the Arab-Israeli war.
Seeking greater energy independence, the United States created an emergency stockpile of crude oil, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, in 1975 and banned most crude oil exports.
The export ban had a few exceptions. Some 491,000 barrels per day of crude were allowed to be exported from Alaska and California to Canada for domestic use, and imported crude could be re-exported.
With the end of the ban, all 9.2 million barrels produced in the United States a day and the 490.7 million barrels stockpiled commercially are available for export.
Courtesy: AFP | New York
While many Democrats opposed it, some joined Republican lawmakers and major oil companies who lobbied hard for lifting the ban, arguing it would create US jobs and boost the security of Washington’s European allies.
“The facts are clear: lifting the ban is good for consumers, our economy, national security and energy security,” said Senator Heidi Heitkamp of oil-rich Nork Dakota.
“By opening up US crude oil to the rest of the world, we would not only provide our allies with a more stable energy trading partner, but we would also reduce the power of countries like Russia, Venezuela, and volatile regions of the Middle East that use their energy dominance to exert influence over our nation and our allies,” she said.
Environmentalists are concerned the move will encourage continued reliance on oil over clean energy, despite US pledges at the Paris climate summit to cut its carbon footprint.
“Dirty, dangerous fossil fuels need to be kept in the ground and liberalizing our export policy is exactly the wrong direction to take,” said Friends of the Earth.
The nongovernmental organization also contended that the ban’s repeal would “increase the frequency of exploding trains and oil spills across the country and in international waters.”
The ban was first imposed in 1975 as the United States was reeling from the 1973-1974 Arab oil embargo, which dealt a heavy shock to the US economy and sent global prices shooting up.
Arab members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had banned oil exports to the United States in retaliation for Washington’s support of Israel during the Arab-Israeli war.
Seeking greater energy independence, the United States created an emergency stockpile of crude oil, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, in 1975 and banned most crude oil exports.
The export ban had a few exceptions. Some 491,000 barrels per day of crude were allowed to be exported from Alaska and California to Canada for domestic use, and imported crude could be re-exported.
With the end of the ban, all 9.2 million barrels produced in the United States a day and the 490.7 million barrels stockpiled commercially are available for export.
Courtesy: AFP | New York
A.R. Trading System
AFL Code:
_SECTION_BEGIN("ooa");
GfxSetBkMode(1);
nol=27;
sk=((C-MA(C,nol))/MA(C,nol))*100;
Graph0=sk;
Graph0BarColor=IIf(sk>0,5,4);
_SECTION_BEGIN("hmw");
_SECTION_BEGIN("ema");
Lk = EMA(Close,22);
Plot (lk," ",colorBrightGreen,styleDots);
GfxSelectFont("tohomabold", Status("pxheight")/16);
GfxSetTextAlign( 6 );
GfxSetTextColor(ColorRGB(10,250,250));
GfxSetBkMode(0);
GfxTextOut( Name(), Status("pxwidth")/2, Status("pxheight")/10 );
cx=Param("cxposn",1085,0,1200,1);
cy=Param("cyposn",16,0,1000,1);
GfxSetBkColor(ColorRGB(200,50,100));
GfxSelectFont( "tohomabold",20,98, False);
GfxSetTextColor( colorYellow);
GfxSetTextColor( ColorHSB( 100, 10, 400) );
GfxTextOut("LTP. "+C+" ", cx, cy );
_SECTION_END();
_SECTION_BEGIN("Title");
DDayO = TimeFrameGetPrice("O", inDaily);
DHiDay = TimeFrameGetPrice("H", inDaily);
DLoDay = TimeFrameGetPrice("L", inDaily);
gfr = TimeFrameGetPrice("C", inDaily, -1);//close
Title = EncodeColor(colorWhite)+" * AR TRADING SYSTEM * "+EncodeColor(ColorRGB(220,10,150)) +" "+ Interval(2) + " " + Date() +
EncodeColor(ColorRGB(200,150,120)) + " \n Open " + O +
", High : " + H +
", Low : " + L+ EncodeColor(colorGreen) +
" * Prevvious Day Close : " + EncodeColor(colorGreen) + gfr +EncodeColor(colorYellow)+
"\n ToDay Open : " +DDayO + " High : " +DHiDay + " Low : "+ DLoDay;
_SECTION_END();
Col_cci = IIf(CCI(8) > 5, colorBrightGreen,IIf(CCI(8) <-5,colorRed,IIf(CCI(8) > Ref(CCI(8),-1),colorBrightGreen,colorDarkRed)));
HaClose =EMA((O+H+L+L+C)/5,3);
HaOpen = AMA( Ref( HaClose, -1 ), 0.5 );
HaHigh = Max( H, Max( HaClose, HaOpen ) );
HaLow = Min( L, Min( HaClose, HaOpen ) );
PlotOHLC( HaOpen, HaHigh, HaLow, HaClose,"" , Col_cci, styleCandle| styleNoLabel );
_SECTION_END();
_SECTION_BEGIN("Background Color");
BKswitch = ParamToggle("Background Color","On,Off");
OUTcolor = ParamColor("Outer Panel Color",colorBlack);
INUPcolor = ParamColor("Inner Panel Upper",colorGrey40);
INDNcolor = ParamColor("Inner Panel Lower",colorBlack);
TitleColor = ParamColor("Title Color ",colorBlack);
if (NOT BKswitch)
{
SetChartBkColor(OUTcolor); // color of outer border
SetChartBkGradientFill(INUPcolor,INDNcolor,TitleColor); // color of inner panel
}
_SECTION_END();
_SECTION_BEGIN("");
SetBarsRequired(100000,0);
GraphXSpace = 15;
ea = EMA (C,10);
eb = EMA (C,20);
SetBarFillColor( IIf( ea > eb, colorGreen, colorRed ) );
Buy = ea > eb AND TimeNum() > 092000 AND TimeNum() < 150000;
Sell = eb > ea OR TimeNum() > 150000;
Short = 0;
Cover = 0;
Buy = ExRem(Buy,Sell);
Sell = ExRem(Sell,Buy);
Short = ExRem(Short,Cover);
Cover = ExRem(Cover,Short);
SetTradeDelays(1,1,1,1);
Factor=Param("Factor",4,1,10,1);
Pd=Param("ATR Periods",10,1,100,1);
Up=(H+L)/2+(Factor*ATR(Pd));
Dn=(H+L)/2-(Factor*ATR(Pd));
iATR=ATR(Pd);
TrendUp=TrendDown=Null;
trend[0]=1;
changeOfTrend=0;
flag=flagh=0;
for (i = 1; i <BarCount; i++) {
TrendUp[i] = Null;
TrendDown[i] = Null;
trend[i]=1;
if (Close[i]>Up[i-1]) {
trend[i]=1;
if (trend[i-1] == -1) changeOfTrend = 1;
}
else if (Close[i]<Dn[i-1]) {
trend[i]=-1;
if (trend[i-1] == 1) changeOfTrend = 1;
}
else if (trend[i-1]==1) {
trend[i]=1;
changeOfTrend = 0;
}
else if (trend[i-1]==-1) {
trend[i]=-1;
changeOfTrend = 0;
}
if (trend[i]<0 && trend[i-1]>0) {
flag=1;
}
else {
flag=0;
}
if (trend[i]>0 && trend[i-1]<0) {
flagh=1;
}
else {
flagh=0;
}
if (trend[i]>0 && Dn[i]<Dn[i-1]){
Dn[i]=Dn[i-1];
}
if (trend[i]<0 && Up[i]>Up[i-1])
{ Up[i]=Up[i-1];
}
if (flag==1)
{ Up[i]=(H[i]+L[i])/2+(Factor*iATR[i]);;
}
if (flagh==1)
{ Dn[i]=(H[i]+L[i])/2-(Factor*iATR[i]);;
}
if (trend[i]==1) {
TrendUp[i]=Dn[i];
if (changeOfTrend == 1) {
TrendUp[i-1] = TrendDown[i-1];
changeOfTrend = 0;
}
}
else if (trend[i]==-1) {
TrendDown[i]=Up[i];
if (changeOfTrend == 1) {
TrendDown[i-1] = TrendUp[i-1];
changeOfTrend = 0;
}
}
}
Buy = trend==1;
Sell=trend==-1;
Buy=ExRem(Buy,Sell);
Sell=ExRem(Sell,Buy);
Short=Sell;
Cover=Buy;
BuyPrice=ValueWhen(Buy,C);
SellPrice=ValueWhen(Sell,C);
ShortPrice=ValueWhen(Short,C);
CoverPrice=ValueWhen(Cover,C);
PlotShapes(IIf(Buy, shapeSquare, shapeNone),colorGreen, 0, L, Offset=-40);
PlotShapes(IIf(Buy, shapeSquare, shapeNone),colorLime, 0,L, Offset=-50);
PlotShapes(IIf(Buy, shapeUpArrow, shapeNone),colorWhite, 0,L, Offset=-45);
PlotShapes(IIf(Short, shapeSquare, shapeNone),colorRed, 0, H, Offset=40);
PlotShapes(IIf(Short, shapeSquare, shapeNone),colorOrange, 0,H, Offset=50);
PlotShapes(IIf(Short, shapeDownArrow, shapeNone),colorWhite, 0,H, Offset=-45);
TrendSL=IIf(trend==1,TrendUp,TrendDown);
for(i=BarCount-1;i>1;i--)
{
if(Buy[i] == 1)
{
entry = C[i];
sig = "BUY";
sl = TrendSL[i];
tar1 = entry + (entry * .0050);
tar2 = entry + (entry * .0092);
tar3 = entry + (entry * .0179);
bars = i;
i = 0;
}
if(Sell[i] == 1)
{
sig = "SELL";
entry = C[i];
sl = TrendSL[i];
tar1 = entry - (entry * .0050);
tar2 = entry - (entry * .0112);
tar3 = entry - (entry * .0212);
bars = i;
i = 0;
}
}
Offset = 20;
Clr = IIf(sig == "BUY", colorLime, colorRed);
ssl = IIf(bars == BarCount-1, TrendSL[BarCount-1], Ref(TrendSL, -1));
sl = ssl[BarCount-1];
Plot(LineArray(bars-Offset, tar1, BarCount, tar1,1), "", Clr, styleLine|styleDots, Null, Null, Offset);
Plot(LineArray(bars-Offset, tar2, BarCount, tar2,1), "", Clr, styleLine|styleDots, Null, Null, Offset);
Plot(LineArray(bars-Offset, tar3, BarCount, tar3,1), "", Clr, styleLine|styleDots, Null, Null, Offset);
Plot(LineArray(bars-Offset, sl, BarCount, sl,1), "", colorDarkRed, styleLine|styleLine, Null, Null, Offset);
//Plot(LineArray(bars-Offset, entry, BarCount, entry,1), "", colorGreen, styleLine|styleLine, Null, Null, Offset);
for (i=bars; i <BarCount;i++)
{
//PlotText(""+sig+"@"+entry, BarCount+1,entry,Null,colorBlue);
PlotText("T1@"+tar1,BarCount+3,tar1,Null,Clr);PlotText("T2@"+tar2,BarCount+3,tar2,Null,Clr);PlotText ("T3@"+tar3,BarCount+3,tar3,Null,Clr);
}
messageboard = ParamToggle("Message Board","Show|Hide",1);
if (messageboard == 1 )
{
GfxSelectFont( "Tahoma", 13, 100 );
GfxSetBkMode( 1 );
GfxSetTextColor( colorWhite );
if ( sig =="BUY")
{
GfxSelectSolidBrush( colorGreen ); // this is the box background color
}
else
{
GfxSelectSolidBrush( colorRed ); // this is the box background color
}
pxHeight = Status( "pxchartheight" ) ;
xx = Status( "pxchartwidth");
Left = 1100;
width = 310;
x = 5;
x2 = 290;
y = pxHeight;
GfxSelectPen( colorWhite, 4); // broader color
GfxRoundRect( x, y - 165, x2, y , 160, 90 ) ;
GfxTextOut( ( "* AR TRADING SYSTEM * "),141,y-160);
GfxTextOut( (" "),130,y-160);
GfxTextOut( ("Last " + sig + " Signal came " + (BarCount-bars-1) * Interval()/60 + " mins ago"), 148, y-140) ; // The text format location
GfxTextOut( ("" + WriteIf(sig =="BUY",sig + " @ ",sig + " @") + " : " + entry), 130, y-120);
GfxTextOut( ("STOP LOSS : " + sl + " (" + WriteVal(IIf(sig == "SELL",entry-sl,sl-entry), 2.2) + ")"), 130, y-100);
GfxTextOut( ("TGT:1 : " + tar1), 130, y -80);
GfxTextOut( ("TGT:2 : " + tar2), 130,y-60);
GfxTextOut( ("TGT:3 : " + tar3), 130,y-40);
GfxTextOut( ("Current P/L * : " + WriteVal(IIf(sig == "BUY",(C-entry),(entry-C)),2.2)), 130, y-22);;
}
_SECTION_END();
Buy = ExRem(Buy, Sell);
Sell = ExRem(Sell, Buy);
shape = Buy * shapeUpArrow + Sell * shapeDownArrow ;
PlotShapes(IIf(Buy, shapeSquare, shapeNone),colorGreen, 0, L, Offset=-40);
PlotShapes(IIf(Buy, shapeSquare, shapeNone),colorLime, 0,L, Offset=-50);
PlotShapes(IIf(Buy, shapeUpArrow, shapeNone),colorWhite, 0,L, Offset=-45);
PlotShapes(IIf(Sell, shapeSquare, shapeNone),colorRed, 0, H, Offset=40);
PlotShapes(IIf(Sell, shapeSquare, shapeNone),colorOrange, 0,H, Offset=50);
PlotShapes(IIf(Sell, shapeDownArrow, shapeNone),colorWhite, 0,H, Offset=-45);
//PlotShapes( shape, IIf( Buy, colorGreen, colorRed ),0, IIf( Buy, Low, High ) );
dist = 2.5*ATR(5);
for( i = 0; i < BarCount; i++ ) {
if( Buy[i] ) PlotText( "Buy\n@" + Close[i], i, Low[i] - dist[i], colorWhite );
if( Sell[i] ) PlotText( "sell\n@" + Close[i], i, Low[i] + dist[i], colorWhite );
}
_SECTION_BEGIN("ema");
P = ParamField("Field");
Type = ParamList("Type", "Weighted,Simple,Exponential,Double Exponential,Tripple Exponential,Wilders");
Periods89 = Param("Periods180", 180, 2, 300 );
Displacement2 = Param("Displacement2", 2, -50, 50 );
Plot( EMA( P, Periods89 ),
_DEFAULT_NAME(), colorWhite, styleDots, 0, 0, Displacement2 );
_SECTION_END();
rjl=Cross(Lk,tar1);
gol=Cross(tar1,Lk );
PlotShapes(shapeHollowStar*rjl,colorAqua,0,H,-20);
PlotShapes(shapeHollowStar*gol,colorViolet,0,L,20) ;
_SECTION_END();
jl = EMA(Close,13);
rfw=Cross(Lk,jl);
bve=Cross(jl,Lk);
dist =1.2*ATR(5);
for( i = 0; i < BarCount; i++ )
{
if( bve[i] ) PlotText( "AB\n" , i, L[ i ]-dist[i], colorWhite,colorDarkBlue );
if( rfw[i] ) PlotText( "AS\n" , i, H[ i ]+dist[i], colorWhite, colorRed );
}
PlotShapes(shapeStar*bve,colorWhite,0,H,-90);
PlotShapes(shapeStar*rfw,colorWhite,0,L,20);
_SECTION_BEGIN("day");
TimeFrameSet( inDaily ); // switch now to dayily
Oo=EMA(C,3);
TimeFrameRestore(); // restore time frame to original
tb=EMA(gfr,3);
Plot( TimeFrameExpand( Oo, inDaily),"", colorYellow,10+30+4| styleNoLabel);
_SECTION_END();
_SECTION_BEGIN("Volume");
cx = Param("cxposn",476,0,1200,1);
cy = Param("cyposn", 500,0,1000,10 );
GfxSelectFont( " Arial ", 14, 98, False );
GfxSetTextColor(ColorRGB(10,250,250));
GfxTextOut("Volume : " +Volume+ "", cx +20,cy +50);
_SECTION_END( );
_SECTION_BEGIN("tom");
function GetSecondNum()
{
Time = Now( 4);
Seconds = int( Time % 100 );
Minutes = int( Time / 100 % 100 );
Hours = int( Time / 10000 % 100 );
SecondNum = int( Hours * 60 * 60 + Minutes * 60 + Seconds );
return SecondNum;
}
RequestTimedRefresh( 1 );
TimeFrame = Interval();
SecNumber = GetSecondNum();
Newperiod = SecNumber % TimeFrame == 0;
SecsLeft = SecNumber - int( SecNumber / TimeFrame ) * TimeFrame;
SecsToGo = TimeFrame - SecsLeft;
x=Param("xposn",99,0,1000,1);
y=Param("yposn",40,0,1000,1);
//GfxRoundRect( x+615, y+530, x+738, y+499, 0,0 );
//GfxSelectSolidBrush( ColorRGB( 230, 230, 230 ) );
//GfxSelectPen( ColorRGB( 203, 25, 23 ), 3 );
if ( NewPeriod )
{
//GfxSelectSolidBrush( colorYellow );
//GfxSelectPen( colorYellow, 2 );
//Say( "New period" );
}
GfxSetBkMode(1);
GfxSelectFont( "Arial", 13, 800, False );
GfxSetTextColor(ColorRGB(220,10,150) );
GfxTextOut( "Timeleft"+" : "+NumToStr( SecsToGo, 1.0 ), x+674, y+507 );
_SECTION_END( );
_SECTION_BEGIN("sys");
x=Param("xposn",315,0,1000,1);
y=Param("yposn",576,0,1000,1);
GfxSetTextColor(ColorRGB(10,250,250));
GfxTextOut( ( " Develop By "),1150,y-45);
GfxSetTextColor(ColorRGB(10,250,250));
GfxTextOut( ( "*AR Trading SYSTEM * "),1150,y-25);
_SECTION_END();
_SECTION_BEGIN("Ribbon");
uptrend=PDI()>MDI()AND Signal()<MACD();
downtrend=MDI()>PDI()AND Signal()>MACD();
Plot( 1, /*efines the height of the ribbon in percent of pane width */"ribbon",
IIf( uptrend, colorLime, IIf( downtrend, colorRed,IIf(Signal()<MACD(), colorLightGrey, colorLightGrey ))), /* choose color */
styleOwnScale|styleArea|styleNoLabel, -.05,50 );
_SECTION_END();
Courtesy: Shivangi
Day Trading, Dhiraj Style
(
This is best method to earn 1000-3000 rs in day trading for a living )
Different people have different methods and ways of day trading.Some trade using charts , 5 min ,30 min ,10 min some use MA,EMA,RSI,CCI, some also use many equations and formulas like pivot points ,woodies pivot,demark pivot points, camarilla equations, any many more things.
I have been trading the markets with all this and come to conclusion that trading market can be reffered as gentlemans gambling ,u can earn from it definately provided u trade it with proper knowledge and a perfect plan and the main thing is that u must go in for small gains for n number of trades ,which also can be reffered as scalping.
The
most important things i track in day trading:
1)Previous days range ( difference in days high and days low) the most important
2)that days high and that days low at 10:15 am after the start of markets
That’s all , earlier I used to trade using all the mentioned things like ma,rsi, adx camarilla equations and all stuff but now I trade in a simple way of using the days range With my studies I have come to a conclusion the if a days range is of 85 points say for any stock say ONGC then it will have three values for the next days for me to trade (that calculation is done by me based on my studies )
Suppose the values I got are 36,63,92 then with this values I will trade for the next day
Say ONGC next day opens at 785 and by 10.15 am it is at 795 neither open or the present value of the stock is important to me ,the thing important to me is the high and low of the stock at 10.15.now here comes three different cases which I will explain u in detail
1)when the difference between high and low ( range ) at 10.15 is less than the first value that is 36
Suppose ONGC has high of 801 and alow of 779 with a range of 22 points <36
Then if the price goes bellows 801 -36= 765 it will definitely go down 0.5 percent more down to 761.2 and this will be my gains
In simple words sell stop loss order at 765 with a buy order at 761.2
Now at 10.15 if the price is at 795 it can go up also so if it goes then I have to take in account of low at 10.15 .so if the rice goes above 779+36=815 then it will deinately go up 0.5 percent up to 819.05
In simple words stop loss buy at 815 and sell at 819.05
If have both ur orders placed then the most important thing is that u must keep a watch on low and high of the stock.suppose at 10.35 its at a low of 770 then u must modify ur stop loss buy order to 770+36=806 from 815 and sell order to 810 from 819.05.in this case ur one order will be the same as the days high will be the same that is 801.
If suppose at 10.35 the stock is at high of 805 then u must modify ur stop loss sell order to 805-36=769 from 765 and buy at 765.2 from 761.2 down 0.5 percent .the second order of urs will be the same as the low will be the same at 779.
If u have any one side of ur order executed with a profit then u must cancel the other two orders .suppose u have stop loss sell and a buy order triggered then u must cancel the other order of stop loss buy and sell order .
2)when the difference between the high and the low at 10.15 is more than 36 and less than 63
Suppose ONGC is at high of 825 and low of 770 at 10.15
Then sell below 825-63=762 and buy at 758.2 down 0.5 percent
Buy at 770+63=833 and sell at 837.15 up 0.5 percent
Here also its important to keep a watch on the days high and low after 10.15 and as per the above example modify ur orders if needed . If u have any one side of ur order executed with a profit then u must cancel the other two orders .suppose u have stop loss sell and a buy order triggered then u must cancel the other order of stop loss buy and sell order.
3)when the difference between high and low at 10.15 if more than 63 and less than 92
Suppose ONGC is at high of 840 and a low of 768 at 10.15 am
Sell below 840-92 = 748 and buy at 744.3 down 0.5 percent
Buy above 768+92= 860 and sell at 864.3 up 0.5 percent .
Same conditions apply as above methods .
observations
and conclusions:
If I take in around 100 stocks then out of hundred only three to four stocks are that will not follow the above theory in day trading .Around 95 stocks when hit the stop loss sell or stop loss buy order go down or up by 0.5 percent respectively . The five stocks which have behaved opposite to the theory will definately will follow this theory the next day and also for more consecutive days .This factor u must use to minimize ur losses u made on that particular day when the stock behaved the opposite way.This is explained in Cash management and stop losses.
Around 70 to 80 stocks go up or down 0.7 to 1.2 percent after hitting the stop loss buy or stop loss sell orders.( here there is a risk that the price may not go in a single stroke down or up but It will go.)
You must trade in those stocks which have a turnover of around 4 to 5 crores or above daily in trading and having short selling
You must be expert in execution of orders and accurate in ur calculations
You should not panic at any time
How I trade and put my stop losses
I take in 20 stocks for trading . I sell or buy one lakh worth of shares of a particular comp.(initial amount which I double as per the requirement )
Now suppose for a stock say ONGC I have my orders as below
Sell below price A and buy at B
Buy above price C and sell at D
Now
here arises three different conditions:
1) when the sell below A order is hit , I put a stop loss of 1 percent above the hit price A for stop loss buy .If my buy at B is hit without hitting the stop loss then I will make a profit of 0.5 percent .this is the best fitted condition for the above theory. The same condition is applicable to buy above price C and sell at price D2)When the sell below A order is hit , I put a stop loss of 1 percent above the hit price A for a stop loss buy.If instead of going at price B the price hits the stop loss then I make a loss of 1 percent(rs 1000 for one lakh wirth of shares) .But at this point I again put order sell below A and modify buy at a price 0.8 percent down of price A ( not at price B which is 0.5 percent down of price A ).Now here the value of stocks ur selling is important .If u have sold shares of one lakh value and booked a loss of one percent then u must sell at the same price two lakh worth of shares ( that is double the value ) but modify buy order at 0.8 percent down from the sell price instead of 0.5 percent down.now when buy order is hit u will profit 1600 rs as compared to a loss of 1000 rs (after ur brokerage charges u still are in profit).This is one of the rare cases in the above theory but u must be prepared to it. The same condition is applicable to buy above price C and sell at price D.
3)when the sell below price A is hit.I put a stop loss 1 percent above the hit price A for a stop loss buy.If instead of going down to price B , stop loss is triggered then I make a loss of one percent . Then I be ready placing another stop loss sell order (but the value of the shares is double)at price A ,and modify my buy order from 0.5 percent down from price to 0.8 percent. But if suppose the price never comes to hit stop loss buy , then for the day I will make a loss of one percent on one lakh worth of shares.
Now to minimize my losses on that day for a particular stock I will double my value of shares to sell or buy the next day (reason if the theory fails for one day then for next 100 percent it will struck and will do for more consecutive days for that particular stock).Here I make up for the loss made by me on the first day on that stock.for e.g on 23/2 I make a loss of one thousand rs (one percent of one lakh) short selling a particular stock .The next day I will sell or buy (as per the above conditions) double the value on the previous day for a PROFIT MARGIN of 0.5 percent only . Here for that day my earning is rs 1000 on the two lakh worth of shares.which will minimize my loss by done by me on the previous day.
Courtesy: Dhiraj
How to Interpret Nifty Options Data
Nifty Options' change in open interest on July 10, 2013 !!
As per today’s Nifty Options’ data, In July series, Maximum open interest was build-up at 6000 Jul Call Option, 6100 Jul Call Option and 5900 Jul Call Option; on the Put side, maximum open interest was build-up at 5800 Jul Put Option. This indicates that positions have continued building on same strike in Call options as well as in put options, which reflects the prevailing positivity in Market. In July series, Maximum total open interest is still on 5600 Jul Put Option. On the Call side, it is on 6000 Jul Call Option, i.e. band of trading range for July series remains the same, from 5600-6000 levels. But, Open interest has being shifting to Higher strikes in Put Options and continued to be on same Strikes of Call Options. As seen today, 5400 Jul Put Option, 5700 Jul Put Option, 5900 Jul Put Option & 5600 Jul Put Option has reduced the maximum open interest & on the Call side, 5800 Jul Call Option has reduced the maximum Open interest & shifted to Higher strike in both call options & Put options, this means sentiments are still Positive. In today's session, the movements on Derivatives front were very volatile. For next trading session, 5800 level will be a crucial level to watch for, 5600 will be the strong support level. On the upside, 5900 will be the crucial resistance level, 6000 level will be acting as a Major resistance. Traders are advice to watch for 5800 level, on the Down side, if Nifty Hold below this level, then a dip down might be seen. If it manages to sustain above this level, then rally up might be seen in Nifty. Strict Stop-loss should be considered while taking any position in Stock Market.
Nifty Options' change in open interest on July 11, 2013 !!
As per today’s Nifty Options’ data, In July series, Maximum open interest was build-up at 5900 Jul Put Option, 6000 Jul Put Option, 5700 Jul Put Option, 5500 Jul Put Option and 5600 Jul Put Option; on the Call side, maximum open interest was build-up at 6300 Jul Call Option. This indicates that positions have been building in Higher Strikes Put options as well as in Call options, which reflects the sentiments are getting extremely positive in Market. In July series, Maximum total open interest is still on 5600 Jul Put Option & 5800 Jul Put Option. On the Call side, it is on 6000 Jul Call Option, i.e. band of trading range for July series remains the same, from 5600-6000 levels. But, Open interest has being shifting to Higher strikes in Put Options as well as Call Options very quickly. As seen today, 5900 Jul Call Option & 6000 Jul Call Option has reduced the maximum open interest & on the Put side, 5400 Jul Put Option has reduced the maximum Open interest & shifted to Higher strike in both call options & Put options, this means sentiments are getting more bullish. In today's session, the movements on Derivatives front were very volatile. For next trading session, 5900 level will be a crucial level to watch for, 5800 will be the strong support level. On the upside, 6000 will be the crucial resistance level, 6100 level will be acting as a Major resistance. Traders are advice to watch for 5900 level, on the Down side, if Nifty Hold below this level, then a dip down might be seen. If it manages to sustain above this level, then rally up might be seen in Nifty. Strict Stop-loss should be considered while taking any position in Stock Market.
Nifty Options' change in open interest on July 15, 2013 !!
As per today’s Nifty Options’ data, In July series, Maximum open interest was build-up at 6000 Jul Put Option & 5900 Jul Put Option; on the Call side, maximum open interest was build-up at 6200 Jul Call Option & 6300 Jul Call Option. This indicates that positions have been building on Higher Strikes Put options and in Higher strikes in Call options, which reflects the sentiments are getting extremely positive in Market. In July series, Maximum total open interest is still on 5800 Jul Put Option & 5600 Jul Put Option, further 5900 Jul Put Option & 5700 Jul Put Option has been observed with maximum total interest added. On the Call side, it is on 6000 Jul Call Option & 6100 Jul Call Option, i.e. the band of trading range for July series has been shifted up, i.e. from 5800-6100 levels. But, Open interest has being shifting to Higher strikes in Put Options as well as Call Options very quickly. As seen today, 5600 Jul Put Option, 5700 Jul Put option & 5400 Jul Put has reduced the maximum open interest & on the Call side, 5900 Jul Call Option & 5800 Jul Call Option has reduced the maximum Open interest & shifted to Higher strike in put options & Higher strikes in call options, this means sentiments are getting more bullish. In today's session, the movements on Derivatives front were very volatile. For next trading session, 6000 level will be a crucial level to watch for, 5800 will be the strong support level. On the upside, 6100 level will be acting as a Major resistance. Traders are advice to watch for 6000 level, on the Down side, if Nifty Hold below this level, then a dip down might be seen. If it manages to sustain above this level, then rally up might be seen in Nifty. Strict Stop-loss should be considered while taking any position in Stock Market.
Now move on as per current data......
Courtesy: Tanya
As per today’s Nifty Options’ data, In July series, Maximum open interest was build-up at 6000 Jul Call Option, 6100 Jul Call Option and 5900 Jul Call Option; on the Put side, maximum open interest was build-up at 5800 Jul Put Option. This indicates that positions have continued building on same strike in Call options as well as in put options, which reflects the prevailing positivity in Market. In July series, Maximum total open interest is still on 5600 Jul Put Option. On the Call side, it is on 6000 Jul Call Option, i.e. band of trading range for July series remains the same, from 5600-6000 levels. But, Open interest has being shifting to Higher strikes in Put Options and continued to be on same Strikes of Call Options. As seen today, 5400 Jul Put Option, 5700 Jul Put Option, 5900 Jul Put Option & 5600 Jul Put Option has reduced the maximum open interest & on the Call side, 5800 Jul Call Option has reduced the maximum Open interest & shifted to Higher strike in both call options & Put options, this means sentiments are still Positive. In today's session, the movements on Derivatives front were very volatile. For next trading session, 5800 level will be a crucial level to watch for, 5600 will be the strong support level. On the upside, 5900 will be the crucial resistance level, 6000 level will be acting as a Major resistance. Traders are advice to watch for 5800 level, on the Down side, if Nifty Hold below this level, then a dip down might be seen. If it manages to sustain above this level, then rally up might be seen in Nifty. Strict Stop-loss should be considered while taking any position in Stock Market.
Nifty Options' change in open interest on July 11, 2013 !!
As per today’s Nifty Options’ data, In July series, Maximum open interest was build-up at 5900 Jul Put Option, 6000 Jul Put Option, 5700 Jul Put Option, 5500 Jul Put Option and 5600 Jul Put Option; on the Call side, maximum open interest was build-up at 6300 Jul Call Option. This indicates that positions have been building in Higher Strikes Put options as well as in Call options, which reflects the sentiments are getting extremely positive in Market. In July series, Maximum total open interest is still on 5600 Jul Put Option & 5800 Jul Put Option. On the Call side, it is on 6000 Jul Call Option, i.e. band of trading range for July series remains the same, from 5600-6000 levels. But, Open interest has being shifting to Higher strikes in Put Options as well as Call Options very quickly. As seen today, 5900 Jul Call Option & 6000 Jul Call Option has reduced the maximum open interest & on the Put side, 5400 Jul Put Option has reduced the maximum Open interest & shifted to Higher strike in both call options & Put options, this means sentiments are getting more bullish. In today's session, the movements on Derivatives front were very volatile. For next trading session, 5900 level will be a crucial level to watch for, 5800 will be the strong support level. On the upside, 6000 will be the crucial resistance level, 6100 level will be acting as a Major resistance. Traders are advice to watch for 5900 level, on the Down side, if Nifty Hold below this level, then a dip down might be seen. If it manages to sustain above this level, then rally up might be seen in Nifty. Strict Stop-loss should be considered while taking any position in Stock Market.
Nifty Options' change in open interest on July 15, 2013 !!
As per today’s Nifty Options’ data, In July series, Maximum open interest was build-up at 6000 Jul Put Option & 5900 Jul Put Option; on the Call side, maximum open interest was build-up at 6200 Jul Call Option & 6300 Jul Call Option. This indicates that positions have been building on Higher Strikes Put options and in Higher strikes in Call options, which reflects the sentiments are getting extremely positive in Market. In July series, Maximum total open interest is still on 5800 Jul Put Option & 5600 Jul Put Option, further 5900 Jul Put Option & 5700 Jul Put Option has been observed with maximum total interest added. On the Call side, it is on 6000 Jul Call Option & 6100 Jul Call Option, i.e. the band of trading range for July series has been shifted up, i.e. from 5800-6100 levels. But, Open interest has being shifting to Higher strikes in Put Options as well as Call Options very quickly. As seen today, 5600 Jul Put Option, 5700 Jul Put option & 5400 Jul Put has reduced the maximum open interest & on the Call side, 5900 Jul Call Option & 5800 Jul Call Option has reduced the maximum Open interest & shifted to Higher strike in put options & Higher strikes in call options, this means sentiments are getting more bullish. In today's session, the movements on Derivatives front were very volatile. For next trading session, 6000 level will be a crucial level to watch for, 5800 will be the strong support level. On the upside, 6100 level will be acting as a Major resistance. Traders are advice to watch for 6000 level, on the Down side, if Nifty Hold below this level, then a dip down might be seen. If it manages to sustain above this level, then rally up might be seen in Nifty. Strict Stop-loss should be considered while taking any position in Stock Market.
Now move on as per current data......
Courtesy: Tanya
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